ESC 2019 | Who Will Win? What Are The Statistics Saying? Week 2
With less than two months until Eurovision 2019, there appears to be several favourites that are in the running to win the contest. With this in mind, and in the weeks leading up to the final, Eurovoxx will look at the statistics, and trends to see what they are showing. Will they differ from week to week? or will they remain the same? Eurovoxx will look at the bookies odds, YouTube views, Spotify streams, and OGAE results to see which countries appear to be on top, and give you the top five from the various outlets. Please note these results are prone to change from time of publish.
The Bookies Favourites:
Since all 41 songs had been released, the bookies have been quite consistent in regards to who they believe will win the competition. After Sergey Lazarev released his entry, "Scream", the Netherlands have clearly taken the top spot, and that is where they have remained. In the last week there have been subtle movements that have seen Sweden drop a place, whilst Switzerland gain a place. The top 5 according to the bookies are as follows:
1) Netherlands (With 22% Chance Of Winning)
2) Russia (With 12% Chance Of Winning)
3) Switzerland (With 11% Chance Of Winning)
4) Sweden (With 7% Chance Of Winning)
5) Iceland ( With 6% Chance Of Winning)
Compared to last week, there have been some subtle changes. The Netherlands, once again remain at the top spot having increased a percentage point on the leader board. Whilst, Russia has decreased a percentage point, and have gone from 13%, to now a 12% chance of winning. Switzerland once again, remain third but their odds have increased a lot, and they are biting at the heels of Russia for second place. Sweden have seen a decrease, whilst Iceland are now at 5th in the odds. They have had a surge, and have now knocked Italy to sixth place. Not bad for a country that has not qualified for some years.
This is another useful tool in seeing what the people of Europe, and the rest of world, are listening too. It shows how songs are fairing, and what people are preferring to listen too. However, it is important to note that some songs have been released, weeks if not months earlier than some, which will prove to be advantageous to some countries. However, the top five from Spotify, do give a pretty impressive insight into what people are listening too. There have been a few changes, with some songs increasing their over all lead.
1) Italy (37,052, 439 Streams) + 2, 848, 455 on last week
2) Sweden (10, 125, 059 Streams) + 1,531, 593 on last week 3) France ( 7, 335, 065 Streams) + 405, 071 on last week
4) Spain (5, 790, 521 Streams) +339, 193 on last week
5) The Netherlands (4, 812, 562 Streams) + 1,410, 556 on last week
Over all the top five total streams remain the same. However, Italy, Sweden and Netherlands have seen well in excess of a million plus Spotify streams. It would be no surprise to see this table change over the next few weeks.
Official Eurovision YouTube Video's
Another interesting way to find out what people are viewing, and listening to is by looking at the official video's of the songs that appear on the Eurovision.tv channel. Not always correct when it comes to the final results of the contest, It does show what is popular, and what is not. There are currently several countries who are part of the one million plus views club. The statistics will increase if you add national final performances, and views from the artists official channels. We have stuck to the official video's on the YouTube Channel. Only thirteen countries have entries who's official video's have been viewed over a million times. This week has seen Sweden drop it's 5th place to Italy, and Malta making progress to the number one spot of most views. However, these are the current top five:
1) Netherlands (4,374, 850 Views)
2) Malta (4,180, 600)
3) Armenia (3,814, 750 Views)
4) Switzerland (2, 080, 500 Views)
5) Italy ( 1, 677, 900 Views)
The fans know best. Or so it is said. Over the years pundits tend to look, and use the votes cast in the OGAE fan clubs to determine which country will win, or who will do well. Again, not often correct these votes are seen as a useful tool prior to the contest to see how the favourites are doing.
So far only three clubs, have released their votes. Armenia were first then, Albania, and France. This is the top five from the OGAE vote so far:
1) Italy 32 Points
2) The Netherlands 31 Points
3) Switzerland 26 Points
4) Cyprus 15 Points
5) Sweden 10 Points
There is no surprise to see Italy, Netherlands, and Switzerland on this list, as they have performed well in most lists. Cyprus is the only country that appears in a top five that doesn't in another poll. Judging from the various statistics, it is going to be a very close race come May with a possible of 6 countries taking the crown. Next week Eurovoxx will look at these again, and see if there have been a major shift in a space of a week.
Do you agree with how the bookies, and fans seem to favour certain songs? Check back then to see if your favourite song will appear in the top five of any of the above categories.