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ESC 2019 | Who Will Win? What Are The Statistics Saying?

March 24, 2019

 

 

With less than two months until Eurovision 2019, there appears to be several favourites that are in the running to win the contest.  With this in mind, and in the weeks leading up to the final, Eurovoxx will look at the statistics, and trends to see what they are showing.  Will they differ from week to week? or will they remain the same?  Eurovoxx will look at the bookies odds, YouTube views, Spotify streams, and OGAE results to see which countries appear to be on top, and give you the top five from the various outlets.  Please note these results are prone to change from time of publish.

 

The Bookies Favourites:

 

Since all 41 songs had been released, the bookies have been quite consistent in regards to who they believe will win the competition.  After Sergey Lazarev released his entry, "Scream", the Netherlands have clearly taken the top spot, and that is where they have remained.  In the last week there have been subtle movements that have seen Sweden drop a place, whilst Switzerland gain a place.  The top 5 according to the bookies are as follows:

 

1)  Netherlands (21% Chance Of Winning)

2)  Russia ( 13% Chance Of Winning)

3)  Switzerland (9% Chance Of Winning)

4)  Sweden (9% Chance Of Winning)

5)  Italy (5% Chance Of Winning)

 

 

 

Spotify Streams:

 

This is another useful tool in seeing what the people of Europe, and the rest of world, are listening too.  It shows how songs are fairing, and what people are preferring to listen too.  However, it is important to note that some songs have been released, weeks if not months earlier than some, which will prove to be advantageous to some countries.   However,  the top five from Spotify, do give a pretty impressive insight into what people are listening too.  France, and Spain appear in the top five of this list, whilst Switzerland and Russia do not make it.   The top 5 are as follows :

 

 

1)  Italy  (34,283,985 Streams)

2)  Sweden  (8,593,470 Streams)

3)  France  (6,930,000 Streams)

4)  Spain  (5,451, 375 Streams)

5)  Netherlands (3,402,010 Streams)

 

It is important no note that the Netherlands were one of the last songs to be known, and despite this have still made the list.  Italy, have a pretty impressive lead in the top five, but the entry, "Soldi" has been released a lot longer than some of the other songs.

 

 

 

Official Eurovision YouTube Video's

 

Another interesting way to find out what people are viewing, and listening to is by looking at the official video's of the songs that appear on the Eurovision.tv channel.  Not always correct when it comes to the final results of the contest,  It does show what is popular, and what is not.  There are currently several countries who are part of the one million plus views club.  The statistics will increase if you add national final performances, and views from the artists official channels.  We have stuck to the official video's on the YouTube Channel.  Only ten countries have entries who's official video's have been viewed over a million times.  However, these are the current top five:

 

1)  Netherlands  (3,811, 294 Views)

2)  Malta (3,408, 687)

3)  Armenia  (3,406, 861 Views)

4)  Switzerland (1, 769, 644 Views)

5)  Sweden ( 1,324, 882 Views)

 

 

 

OGAE Results:

 

The fans know best. Or so it is said.   Over the years pundits tend to look, and use the votes cast in the OGAE fan clubs to determine which country will win, or who will do well.  Again, not often correct these votes are seen as a useful tool prior to the contest to see how the favourites are doing.  

 

As of yet, no OGAE results have been announced.  It is expected that Armenia will be the first to deliver their votes.  

 

 

Although there are subtle changes to each category of results.  What is consistent to see is that the Netherlands. and Sweden have made the top five of each category, with Switzerland performing very well in atleast two.  Next week Eurovoxx will look at these again, and see if there have been a major shift in a space of a week. 

 

Do you agree with how the bookies, and fans seem to favour certain songs?  Check back then to see if your favourite song will appear in the top five of any of the above categories.

 

 

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