Here in the United Kingdom it is May day. It is a traditional day of festivities celebrating springtime fertility. This bank holiday in the U.K coincides with the first Monday in May, and in the past was convenient to give farmers the day off. This year may day marks the countdown to Eurovision, 9 days until semi-final 1, 11 days until semi-final 2. More importantly only thirteen days until the grand final of the Eurovision Song Contest. At Eurovoxx we analysed trends from several weeks ago, now nearly three weeks later, and less than two until the grand final we will look to see if a winner is looking more and more likely now, and which country will win the crown.
Fans following the contest cannot fail to notice that recently the OGAE polls have been in full swing. These members don't always get the right result, but they have been quite a handy tool in predicting which countries appear on the left hand side of the board. Not to be taken literally, a lot of people gauge these polls, and look upto them, trending what is popular in specific countires. The last day of April coincided with the last set of votes from Poalnd whom awarded their 'douze point' to Italy. The overall top three are as follows:
1) Italy with 497 points
2) Belgium with 335 points
3) Sweden with 308 points
You do not need to be a mathematician to see that Italy have a massive lead over Belgium and are a clear favourite. They scored with every jury, and the lowest points that they were awarded was 7 points from the Armenian OGAE club. What is more impressive is that Italy's Francesco Gabbani received 37 top marks out of a possible 43. If this was the Eurovision final, it would be a landslide victory.
This is just one poll, so are the others and social media going with the idea that Italy will win the contest? We now look at youtube and see how the number of views have been distributed. Are YouRo viewers liking "Occidentali’s Karma" as much as the OGAE clubs? In one word YES!!! Here are the top 3 youtube videos:
1) Italy 108+ million views
2) Hungary 9+ million views
3) Sweden 6+ million views
Italy have topped this poll too. What is more interesting to note is that they are nearly 100 million views more than their nearest neighbour. They hit have commanded a massive lead, and go down in history as the most viewed Eurovision song. They have not even performed in the final yet, and have already amassed more views than the winner from last year. Is Francessco Gabbani and his dancing gorilla sidekick going to reflect this on the night?
We also look at Spotify to see if the current trends are being bucked. Here are the top 3:
1) Sweden 11.5 + million streams
2) Italy 10.5 + million streams
3) Norway 2.8 + million streams
Although, neck and neck essentially in the Spotify streaming service. Sweden’s Robin Bengtsson with the song “I can’t go on” has amassed just over a million more views than Italy’s “Occidentali’s Karma”. It is no surprise to see the two big guns showing here, and as the grand final draws even closer, we might see this position change.
Have you placed a bet yet? If not these are the current bookies favourites:
1) Italy 11/8
2) Bulgaria 8/1
3) Sweden 10/1
All three countries top the polls for those predicted to come top 4 and top 10 finishers too. Italy not being suprising as the front runner in every poll.
It’s more than likely that during rehersals, and the semi finals these odds will change depending on how the artists perform. Already during the the rehersals for semi final one, the press put Belgium in last place with 0 points. With the OGAE clubs however, she was second. Even though Italy seem like they have got the win in the bag, and well deserved if they do. It wouldn’t be a surprise that on the night that an under dog will steal the show. Portugal and Finland, are currently being whispered as contenders that might sneak under the radar.
Between now and the final all countries will have their chance to shine on stage, and practice their performances. A culmination of two semi-finals will whittle the songs down, and although Italy look like the hot favourites, you can always guarantee that the Eurovision will throw in some surprises. Stay tuned to Eurovoxx to see what happens.
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